陳榮昌蕭以青2025-08-282025-08-282023-09-11U0061-1007202301034900https://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh1?DocID=U0061-1007202301034900https://nutcir-lib.nutc.edu.tw/handle/123456789/1158近年來，許多非預期事件接連發生，為供應鏈帶來許多干擾和風險，甚至導致供應鏈中斷。為了降低事件對企業的傷害，不少企業開始重視供應鏈韌性 (Resilience) 的提升。然而，企業大都不知如何著手。供應鏈韌性是一個相當複雜的問題，必須運用適當的方法才能有效解決。從過去的文獻可以得知，德菲法(Delphi Method) 可以處理複雜的問題而取得專家共識，可惜往往耗時過長，不具時間效益。有鑑於此，本研究使用修正式德菲法 (Modified Delphi Method)，以結構化問卷取代開放式問卷，縮短研究期程以增加實務的可行性。此外，企業雖然了解到提升供應鏈韌性的重要性，但往往準備度不足，特別是對於資訊的掌握。是故，本研究融入重要度與績效分析法 (Importance and Performance Analysis, IPA) 的概念，以兩個維度取代一個維度，採用結合IPA之修正式德菲法發展問卷並收集專家一致性的意見，之後透過IPA分析訂定行動指引優先序。 為驗證本研究所提出的方法其可行性，本研究以一家知名物流公司為案例，進行實證探討。本研究共進行了兩回合的修正式德菲法問卷調查，其中問卷內容包括重要度和準備度/資訊掌握度兩個維度，各有39題。結果顯示，共有35題項於兩個維度皆達高度一致性。除此之外，針對具高度一致性之題項進行IPA分析，可以簡單而快速地找出10項改善重點並訂定出行動指引的優先序。A series of unexpected events have occurred in recent years. Supply chain is exposed to risks associated with disturbances, and even leading to disruptions. Many companies have focused on enhancing the supply chain resilience to minimize the damage caused by these events. However, most of them don’t know where to start. Supply chain resilience is a complex issue that needs to use appropriate methods to address it. According to previous literature, Delphi Method can be used to handle complex problems and achieve expert consensus, but it is inefficient because of taking a long time. This study uses a Modified Delphi Method, which replaces open-ended questionnaires with structured questionnaires to reduce time-consuming and increase feasibility. Additionally, although companies understand the importance of enhancing supply chain resilience, they often lack of preparedness, especially in terms of information mastery. Therefore, this study incorporates the concept of Importance and Performance Analysis (IPA) to replace one dimension with two dimensions. The Modified Delphi Method combined with IPA is used to develop a questionnaire and reach expert consensus. Subsequently, action guidelines are prioritized by IPA analysis. To verify the feasibility of the proposed method in this study, a well-known logistics company is taken as a case study for empirical research. Two rounds of Modified Delphi Method questionnaires were conducted, including two dimensions: importance and preparedness / information mastery, each consisting of 39 questions. The results showed that 35 items achieved a high level of consensus in both dimensions. Furthermore, IPA analysis was conducted on items with high consensus, which identified 10 guidelines for improving and establishing priority.zh供應鏈韌性修正德菲法重要度與績效分析法行動指引優先序supply chain resilienceModified Delphi MethodImportance and Performance Analysis (IPA)action guidelinesprioritymaster thesis