探討團體組成和連續支出之旅遊決策行為

本研究藉由我國政府公開之國內旅遊資料，旨在探討旅運者在擁有多種團體型態下連續資源的分配問題。在參照過去文獻後，使用多重離散連續極值模型作為估計方法。並在飽和效果有無異質下，分別建立考量時間與貨幣之模型。所有模型皆估計社會經濟特性與旅遊特性對於團體型態之影響，透過飽和效應異質性，觀察團體型態之連續支出。本研究依據概似比指標、標準化均方根誤差與方案正確比率做為模式評比指標，判定飽和參數異質的Time-MDCEV為最佳模型。估計結果表明對於旅遊團體組成的影響變數有年齡、月收入、職業、婚姻狀況、年度旅遊次數、旅遊季節、旅遊假期、交通工具、旅遊活動數以及旅遊活動的型態；而對於連續支出的影響變數有婚姻狀況與不同年齡層。團體型態選擇部分表明旅運者對於不管以時間或以貨幣皆為一致；而婚姻狀況、12至29歲與30至59歲的旅運者對於連續支出有顯著正向影響。藉由模型估計結果發現退休人員較偏好單人旅遊，若以多人團體旅遊則較偏好與兒童出遊，研究結果幫助旅遊業對其目標客群規劃更完善的套裝行程。

This study uses the government-disclosed data of domestic tourism to investigate the allocation of tourism resources that travelers participated at multiple tourism activities with multiple travel party composition. This study used multiple discrete continuous extreme value models to estimate both decisions of discrete choice of travel party and continuous expenditure of tourism resources. In the differences of saturation effects, this study estimated the model of time and monetary separately. All models estimate the impacts of a set of socio-demographic and tourism characteristics attributes on travelers’ travel party and capture the satiation effect with increasing the consumption for each travel party. This study compares those proposed models by likelihood ratio index, normalized RMSE and correct ratio. The result shows that Time-MDCEV model with heterogeneous saturation effect is the best-fitted model. The results indicate that the variables affecting the composition of travel party include age, income, occupation, marital status, number of annual tours, season, holidays, transport, tourism activities, and types of tourism activities; and the variables affecting continuous expenditure include marital status and different age groups. The result of travel party choice indicates that there is a consistent trend between time and monetary decision. On the other hand, marriage, the group of age 12 to 29, and the group of age 30-59 have positive effects on the continuous expenditure decision of monetary and time. This study finds retiree group prefer to travel alone, but are also willing to travel with children. Those above results can help tourism agencies to plan the tour package of target travelers more precisely.