零售業導入IoRT之精準行銷績效預測模型:系統動力學理論

隨著科技進步，不同的電子應用投術已融入生活當中。而物聯網（Internet of Things,IoT）更是近年科技界和商界當紅話題。透過資訊科技的推波助瀾，現今企業所面對的皆是無國界、無疆域的競爭壓力，處於如此多變的競爭環境中，管理者應如何「溝通」、「協調」、「控制」等規劃管理技巧，著實考驗著企業經營管理者的智慧及能力。
　　系統動力學是Jay W. Forrester在1956年所提出，系統動力學以一種宏觀的角度來思考、解決問題，避免因微觀的角度而限於片段的思考。系統動力學以存量、流量的基本觀念，加上輔助變數與關係連結，發展出一套可以用來模擬系統運作的工具，其簡單的圖像式表達，非常適合用以描述多變的競爭環境。
　　本研究針對IoT及精準行銷兩大主題，探討文獻裡2個模型中的顧客循環關係，運用系統動力學的思維，展開三個子模型，分別是「beacon投資流」、「服務品質流」及「精準行銷流」，經由相關資料蒐集之結果，整理出系統各環節連動之現況，並以系統動力學的觀點建立其因果關係，再使用ithink 程式語言，進一步將因果關係轉換為明確的函數關係，專就零售業導入IoRT分析後獲得驗證。
　　本文在商管學術上的貢獻，在於證實了系統動力學使用於零售業導入beacon技術解釋上的能力，並歸納出一套發展系統動力學建構零售業導入IoRT的流程，後續的研究者可依此流程去開發出不同零售種類導入IoRT的預測模型。本文在企業營運實務上的貢獻，在於證實了以系統動力學所發展出的市場運作模型，可以模擬企業的運作，並提供模擬結果作為決策者策略參考。

With the advancement of science and technology, different electronic applications have been integrated into life. The Internet of Things (IoT) is in recent years, science and technology and business circles popular topic. With the help of information technology, companies are faced with the need for "communication", "coordination", "control" and so on in the competitive environment where there is no border, no competition in the border. Skills, really test the wisdom and ability of business managers.
　　System dynamics is proposed by Jay W. Forrester in 1956, and system dynamics considers and resolves problems in a macroscopic way, avoiding the micro-perspective and limited to fragmentary thinking. System dynamics, based on the basic concepts of stock and flow, coupled with auxiliary variables and relationships, develops a set of tools that can be used to simulate the operation of the system. Its simple image representation is well suited to describe the changing competitive environment.
　　This paper aims at two major themes of IoT and precision marketing, and discusses the customer cycle relationship in two models in the literature. Using the system dynamics, we will start three sub-models: "beacon investment flow", "service quality flow" and " Precision marketing flow ", through the relevant information collected results, sort out the status of the linkage of the system, and the system dynamics point of view to establish its causal relationship, and then use ithink program language, and further the causal relationship into a clear function of the relationship, Specifically for the import industry IoRT analysis after the test.
　　This paper focuses on the contribution of system dynamics to the introduction of beacon technology in the retail industry, and sums up a set of development system dynamics to construct the retail industry into the IoRT process, and follow-up researchers This process to develop a different retail category into the IoRT forecast model. The contribution of this paper to the operation of the enterprise lies in confirming the market operation model developed by the system dynamics, which can simulate the operation of the enterprise and provide the simulation result as the decision maker policy reference.